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Below average home sales allow inventory to inch upwards

Here below is an article published by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver on March 2.  Feel free to contact Eva Li for your real estate related questions.

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February listing data show a continued reluctance among prospective home sellers to engage in Metro Vancouver’s housing market, leading to below-average sales activity. With sales remaining well-below historical norms, the number of available homes for sale in the region have continued inching upwards.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,808 in February 2023, a 47.2 per cent decrease from the 3,424 sales recorded in February 2022, and a 76.9 per cent increase from the 1,022 homes sold in January 2023.

Last month’s sales were 33 per cent below the 10-year February sales average.

There were 3,467 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in February 2023. This represents a 36.6 per cent decrease compared to the 5,471 homes listed in February 2022 and a 5.2 per cent increase compared to January 2023 when 3,297 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 7,868, a 16.7 per cent increase compared to February 2022 (6,742) and a 5.2 per cent increase compared to January 2023 (7,478).

“While we continue to expect home price trends to show year-over-year declines for a few more months, current data and market activity suggest pricing is firming up. In fact, some leading indicators suggest we may see modest price increases this spring, particularly if sales activity increases and mortgage rates hold steady,” Lis said.

“In the somewhat unusual market environment we find ourselves in right now with higher mortgage rates, fewer sales, and inventory that is inching higher but remains far from abundant, working with a Realtor who understands your local market conditions and has experience navigating challenging markets is paramount.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2023 is 23 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 16.8 per cent for detached homes, 30.1 per cent for townhomes, and 25.8 per cent for apartments.

Home sales decline below long-term averages and inventory remains low to start 2023

Here below is an excerpt of an article published by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver on February 2, 2023. Contact me anytime for your questions.  When you know someone who is interested in the real estate market and would like to know more, please let me know their names and phone nos.   Please check my website evali.ca for area market report.  If there is a home that you are interested to find out more info, or a pre-sale development that you’d like to enquire about, contact me.  I’m here to help! 

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Inventory remains low in Metro Vancouver while home sales dipped well below monthly historical averages in January.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,022 in January 2023, a 55.3 per cent decrease from the 2,285 sales recorded in January 2022, and a 21.1 per cent decrease from the 1,295 homes sold in December 2022.

Last month’s sales were 42.9 per cent below the 10-year January sales average.

“Due to seasonality, market activity is quieter in January. With mortgage rates having risen so rapidly over the last year, we anticipated sales this month would be among the lowest in recent history,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics. “Looking forward, however, the Bank of Canada has said that it will pause further rate increases as long as the incoming economic data continues to support this policy stance. This should provide more certainty for home buyers and sellers in the market.”

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 7,478, a 32.1 per cent increase compared to January 2022 (5,663) and a 1.3 per cent increase compared to December 2022 (7,384).

Sales to Active ratio Jan.JPG

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for January 2023 is 13.7 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 10.2 per cent for detached homes, 13.4 per cent for townhomes, and 16.7 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“We know the peak for prices in our market occurred last spring. Over the coming months, year-over-year data comparisons will show larger price declines than we’ve been reporting up to now,” said Lis. “It’s important to understand that year-over-year calculations are backward-looking. These price declines already happened, and what we are seeing today is that prices may have found a footing, even if it’s an awkward one sandwiched between low inventory and higher borrowing costs.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,111,400. This represents a 6.6 per cent decrease over January 2022 and a 0.3 per cent decrease compared to December 2022.

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2023 BC Property Assessments

The 2023 BC Property Assessments are now available online through BC Assessment, and homeowners can now check theirs on the website and expect to receive notices in the mail latest by the end of January 2023.

In accordance with BC Assessment assessor Bryan Murao, most homeowners around the province can generally expect about a 5-15% rise in assessment values this year. The assessments are based on July 1, 2022 values, i.e. using similar properties sold up to July 1 as calculation of the assessed value.   

Home owners who feel their assessment does not accurately reflect the value of the property as of July 1, 2022, can file an appeal by January 31, 2023.

Contact Eva Li if you have any questions about your home valuation. 

#evalirealestate #evali #vancouverrealestate #burnabyrealestate #coquitlamrealestate #newwestminsterrealestate #newwestrealestate #realtor #realestateagent #toprealtor #topagent #BCassessment  

Rising mortgage rates brought uncertainty and caution in 2022

2021
43,999
Sold

2022
28,903
Sold

(-34.4%)

Residential property sales in Metro Vancouver

After seeing record sales and prices during the pandemic, Metro Vancouver’s* housing market experienced a year of caution in 2022 due to rising borrowing costs fueled by the Bank of Canada’s ongoing battle with inflation.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 28,903 in 2022, a 34.3 per cent decrease from the 43,999 sales recorded in 2021, and a 6.6 per cent decrease from the 30,944 homes sold in 2020.

Last year’s sales total was 13.4 per cent below the 10-year sales average.

“The headline story in our market in 2022 was all about inflation and the Bank of Canada’s efforts to bring inflation back to target by rapidly raising the policy rate. This is a story we expect to continue to make headlines into 2023, as inflationary pressures remain persistent across Canada,”

Andrew Lis, REBGV Director, economics and data analytics

Andrew Lis, REBGV Director, economics and data analytics

Home listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver reached 53,865 in 2022. This is a 13.5 per cent decrease compared to the 62,265 homes listed in 2021 and a 0.8 per cent decrease compared to the 54,305 homes listed in 2020.

Last year’s listings total was 3.2 per cent below the region’s 10-year average.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 7,384, a 41 per cent increase compared to December 2021 (5,236) and a 19.6 per cent decrease compared to November 2022 (9,179).

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,114,300. This represents a 3.3 per cent decrease over December 2021, a 1.5 per cent decrease compared to November 2022, and a 9.8 per cent decrease over the past six months.

“Closing out 2022, the data show that the Bank of Canada’s decisions to increase the policy rate at seven of the eight interest rate announcement dates in 2022 has translated into downward pressure on home sale activity and, to a lesser extent, home prices in Metro Vancouver,” Lis said.

“While the consensus among many economists and forecasters suggests the Bank of Canada may be near the end of this tightening cycle, rates may remain elevated for longer than previously expected since the latest inflation figures aren’t showing signs of abating quickly. We’ll watch the 2023 spring market closely to see if buyers and sellers have adjusted to the higher borrowing-costs and are participating more actively in the market than we have seen over the last 12 months.”

December summary

December 2021
2,688
Sold

December 2022
1,295
Sold

(-51.8%)

Residential property sales in Metro Vancouver

Residential home sales in the region totalled 1,295 in December 2022, a 51.8 per cent decrease from the 2,688 sales recorded in December 2021, and a 19.8 per cent decrease from the 1,614 homes sold in November 2022.

Last month’s sales were 37.7 per cent below the 10-year December sales average.

There were 1,206 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver in December 2022. This represents a 38 per cent decrease compared to the 1,945 homes listed in December 2021 and a 60.5 per cent decrease compared to November 2022 when 3,055 homes were listed.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for December 2022 is 17.5 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.3 per cent for detached homes, 19.5 per cent for townhomes, and 21.7 per cent for apartments.

Sales-to-active listings ratio – December 2022

Detached homes

12.3%

Townhomes

19.5%

Condominiums

21.7%

Total 17.5%

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

Sales of detached homes in December 2022 reached 371, a 53.3 per cent decrease from the 794 detached sales recorded in December 2021. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,823,300. This represents a 5.1 per cent decrease from December 2021, a 1.8 per cent decrease compared to November 2022, and a 11.4 per cent decrease over the past six months.

Sales of apartment homes reached 702 in December 2022, a 52 per cent decrease compared to the 1,464 sales in December 2021. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $713,700. This represents a 1.7 per cent increase from December 2021, a 0.9 per cent decrease compared to November 2022, and a 6.9 per cent decrease over the past six months.

Attached home sales in December 2022 totalled 222, a 48.4 per cent decrease compared to the 430 sales in December 2021. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,012,700. This represents a 0.2 per cent decrease from December 2021, a 1.5 per cent decrease compared to November 2022, and a 9.2 per cent decrease over the past six months.

Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate

You may have already heard that the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 per cent point to 4.25 per cent this morning.  The central bank also signalled in a statement accompanying the decision that a pause in rate hikes could be coming.  The prime rate is 6.45%.

The Bank of Canada’s key interest rate now sits at its highest level since 2008.    The bank said in its statement Wednesday that it will be watching how interest rates are working to slow demand, how global supply challenges are resolving and whether inflation and expectations around rising prices are cooling to gauge the need for further rate hikes.  The language used was in a more neutral, wait and see approach and a clear suggesting the bank may be getting ready to stand on the sidelines for a while.

November home sale and listing totals were below the region’s long term averages.  The sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2022 is 17.6 per cent.   The ratio is 13.2 per cent for detached homes, 19.7 per cent for townhomes, and 20.8 per cent for apartments.  Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

Despite the current market’s low inventory levels, there are still homes available for those looking to buy.  The days a typical home is listed on the market may increase as fewer buyers qualify for a mortgage, and it also takes more time to find a buyer who qualifies.  I predict that the housing inventory will continue to grow as affordability becomes more challenged.  

Home sale and listing activity continue trending below long-term averages in November

While typically a quiet month of market activity based on seasonal patterns, November home sale and listing totals lagged below the region’s long-term averages.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,614 in November 2022, a 52.9 per cent decrease from the 3,428 sales recorded in November 2021, and a 15.2 per cent decrease from the 1,903 homes sold in October 2022.

Last month’s sales were 36.9 per cent below the 10-year November sales average.

“With the most recent core inflation metrics showing a stubborn reluctance to respond significantly to the furious pace of rate increases, the Bank of Canada may choose to act more forcefully to bring inflation back toward target levels.” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics said. “While it’s always difficult to predict what the bank will do with certainty, this persistent inflationary backdrop sets up the December 7 rate announcement to be yet another increase, making holiday-season home purchases something people may end up foregoing this year.”

There were 3,055 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in November 2022. This represents a 22.9 per cent decrease compared to the 3,964 homes listed in November 2021 and a 24.2 per cent decrease compared to October 2022 when sellers listed 4,033 homes.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,179, a 28.5 per cent increase compared to November 2021 (7,144) and a 6.8 per cent decrease compared to October 2022 (9,852).

“Heading into 2023, the market continues the trend of shifting toward historical averages and typical seasonal norms,” Lis said. “Whether these trends continue will depend on looming economic factors and forthcoming housing policy measures on the horizon, which hold the potential to reignite uncertainty in our market.

“With that said, from a long-term structural standpoint, the current pace of listings and available inventory remain relatively tight when considered against a backdrop of continued in-migration to the province. With the recently announced increase in federal immigration targets, the state of available supply in our market remains one demand surge away from renewed price escalation, despite the inflationary environment and elevated mortgage rates.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2022 is 17.6 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 13.2 per cent for detached homes, 19.7 per cent for townhomes, and 20.8 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,131,600. This represents a 0.6 per cent decrease over November 2021, a 10.2 per cent decrease over the last six months, and a 1.5 per cent decrease compared to October 2022.

Sales of detached homes in November 2022 reached 486, a 50.8 per cent decrease from the 987 detached sales recorded in November 2021. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,856,800. This represents a 1.7 per cent decrease from November 2021 and a 1.9 per cent decrease compared to October 2022.

Sales of apartment homes reached 847 in November 2022, a 53.7 per cent decrease compared to the 1,828 sales in November 2021. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $720,500. This represents a 3.5 per cent increase from November 2021 and a 0.9 per cent decrease compared to October 2022.

Attached home sales in November 2022 totalled 281, a 54.2 per cent decrease compared to the 613 sales in November 2021. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $1,027,900. This represents a 2.7 per cent increase from November 2021 and a 1.5 per cent decrease compared to October 2022.

Inflation, rising interest rates create caution across Metro Vancouver’s housing market

Below is an article published by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver on November 2, 2022.  For any real state questions, please contact Eva Li anytime.  

Home sale activity across the Metro Vancouver housing market continued to trend well below historical averages in October.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,903 in October 2022, a 45.5 per cent decrease from the 3,494 sales recorded in October 2021, and a 12.8 per cent increase from the 1,687 homes sold in September 2022.

Last month’s sales were 33.3 per cent below the 10-year October sales average.

“Inflation and rising interest rates continue to dominate headlines, leading many buyers and sellers to assess how these factors impact their housing options,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics said. “With sales remaining near historic lows, the number of active listings continues to inch upward, causing home prices to recede from the record highs set in the spring of 2022.”

There were 4,033 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in October 2022. This represents a 0.4 per cent decrease compared to the 4,049 homes listed in October 2021 and a 4.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2022 when 4,229 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,852, a 22.6 per cent increase compared to October 2021 (8,034) and a 1.2 per cent decrease compared to September 2022 (9,971).

“Recent years have been characterized by a frenetic pace of sales amplified by scarce listings on the market to choose from. Today’s market cycle is a marked departure, with a slower pace of sales and more selection to choose from,” Lis said. “This environment provides buyers and sellers more time to conduct home inspections, strata minute reviews, and other due diligence. With the possibly of yet another rate hike by the Bank of Canada this December, it has become even more important to secure financing as early in the process as possible.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for October 2022 is 19.3 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 14.3 per cent for detached homes, 21.6 per cent for townhomes, and 23.2 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,148,900. This represents a 2.1 per cent increase from October 2021, a 9.2 per cent decrease over the last six months, and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2022.

Sales of detached homes in October 2022 reached 575, a 47.2 per cent decrease from the 1,090 detached sales recorded in October 2021. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,892,100. This represents a 1.6 per cent increase from October 2021 and a 0.7 per cent decrease compared to September 2022.

Sales of apartment homes reached 995 in October 2022, a 44.8 per cent decrease compared to the 1,801 sales in October 2021. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $727,100. This represents a 5.1 per cent increase from October 2021 and a 0.2 per cent decrease compared to September 2022.

Attached home sales in October 2022 totalled 333, a 44.8 per cent decrease compared to the 603 sales in October 2021. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $1,043,600. This represents a 7.1 per cent increase from October 2021 and a 0.5 per cent decrease compared to September 2022.

Metro Vancouver saw more home sellers and fewer buyers in September

September 2021

3,149

Sold

September 2022

1,687

Sold

(-46.4%)

Residential property sales in Metro Vancouver

Home sellers were more active in Metro Vancouver’s* housing market in September while home buyer demand remained below the region’s long-term averages.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,687 in September 2022, a 46.4 per cent decrease from the 3,149 sales recorded in September 2021, and a 9.8 per cent decrease from the 1,870 homes sold in August 2022.

Last month’s sales were 35.7 per cent below the 10-year September sales average.

“With the Bank of Canada and other central banks around the globe hiking rates in an effort to stamp out inflation, the cost to borrow funds has risen substantially over a short period. This has resulted in a more challenging environment for borrowers looking to purchase a home, and home sales across the region have dropped accordingly.”

Andrew Lis, REBGV director, economics and data analytics

There were 4,229 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in September 2022. This represents an 18.2 per cent decrease compared to the 5,171 homes listed in September 2021 and a 27.1 per cent increase compared to August 2022 when 3,328 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,971, an eight per cent increase compared to September 2021 (9,236) and a 3.2 per cent increase compared to August 2022 (9,662).

“With fewer homes selling and new listings continuing to come to market, inventory is beginning to accumulate, providing buyers with more selection compared to last year,” Lis said. “With more supply and less demand within this market cycle, residential home prices have edged down in the region over the last six months.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2022 is 16.9 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.4 per cent for detached homes, 18.4 per cent for townhomes, and 20.9 per cent for apartments.

Sales-to-active listings ratio – September 2022

Detached homes

12.4%

Townhomes

18.4%

Condominiums

20.9%

Total 16.9%

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

Sept stat.jpg

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,155,300. This represents a 3.9 per cent increase over September 2021, an 8.5 per cent decline over the past six months, and a 2.1 per cent decline compared to August 2022.

Sales of detached homes in September 2022 reached 525, a 44.7 per cent decrease from the 950 detached sales recorded in September 2021. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,906,400. This represents a 3.8 per cent increase from September 2021 and a 2.4 per cent decrease compared to August 2022.

Sales of apartment homes reached 888 in September 2022, a 45.2 per cent decrease compared to the 1,621 sales in September 2021. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $728,500. This represents a 6.2% per cent increase from September 2021 and a 1.6 per cent decrease compared to August 2022.

Attached home sales in September 2022 totalled 274, a 52.6 per cent decrease compared to the 578 sales in September 2021. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,048,900. This represents a 9.1 per cent increase from September 2021 and a 1.9 per cent decrease compared to August 2022.

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The above article is published by the REBGV on October 4.  Contact Eva Li for any rel estate questions.